No one expected this many jobs

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People whose job it is to watch the economy are shocked at how many jobs the economy added last month: Payrolls added 272,000 more jobs in May, according to employer stats the government dropped yesterday, vastly exceeding the 190,000 increase that analysts predicted.

• The biggest job gains were in healthcare (68k jobs), government (43k), and hospitality (42k).

• The average hourly pay increased by 0.4% from the previous month and 4.1% over the year, also exceeding analysts’ predictions.

The surprisingly strong employment gains are prompting some head-scratching since they come amid slowing economic growth as consumers pull back on spending. The job market’s resilience has dashed hopes among investors and anyone planning to take out a loan that the Fed will lower interest rates soon.

The puzzling piece

For the wonks who dug into it, the jobs report gave more mixed signals than a broken traffic light.

• The unemployment rate ticked up to 4% from 3.9% in April, breaking its historic streak of 27 months under 4%.

• A survey of households revealed that the number of Americans working dropped by 408,000 from April to May.

Some economists claim the household survey fails to properly account for immigrant workers, who have been the main driver of working population growth in recent years. But others say it checks out given the general cooldown vibes in the labor market: Job openings were at a three-year low in April, and many recent college grads have struggled to find work.

Still, big job gains mean high rates…almost no one expects a rate cut before the fall, and investors are split nearly 50/50 over whether there will be one in September. Realtors anticipate mortgages will remain at 7% on average for at least a month.—SK